What You Should Remember On November 3rd, 2020

“Trump will attempt to start or buy a media company that can compete with Fox News and do battle with everyone else.” This is what Timothy L. O’Brien wrote in a Bloomberg Opinion article on June 7th, 2020  (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-07/trump-s-ugly-week-reveals-how-he-wants-to-be-remembered).  I see this as a strong likelihood because if there has been one constant in the Trump administration it’s that everything centers around him. If you have any doubt of this just remember this, he has publicly referred to himself as “the Chosen One”. His arrogance, his megalomaniacal view of self-worth, lacks any justification. Donald J. Trump is a farce of a man with no substance.

This administration has given us no peace treaty with North Korea or Afghanistan. We have no trade agreements with China, Japan, the European Union (though NAFTA has been tweaked it still cannot be called “NAFTA 2”), or OPEC. “Law and Order” President? No reforms in gun control regulation at any time in the foreseeable future despite the school and public mass shootings. On the global scene, North Korea is still a “rogue” nation, the Taliban is leaving peace talks, and we have no SALT Treaty with Russia. Healthcare? Despite the over 50 attempts to repeal the Affordable Healthcare Act by the GOP, Trump has not come up with a replacement (he does want to make changes to Medicare and Medicaid by allowing coverage through private insurers and cutting government spending). Immigration reform: increase in arrests and still pushing for a costly and mostly inefficient wall (there are alternatives in technology like the use of drones that would be more efficient and less costly).

Then there is what he has done. He has rolled back EPA standards and regulations almost to pre-Obama (even pre-Bush) times benefitting pollution producing industries like coal and petroleum. His Farm Relieve directives he signed to help farmers in the trade tariff war he created with China benefitted mostly the Big Agribusinesses and suppliers than small farms. He has increased funding to the Defense Department which mostly benefitted military manufacturers. Trump has stepped on state’s rights by rolling back interstate commercial transportation taxes. Talking about taxes, he has given tax credits to the wealthy and corporations with the idea that it will get to the regular worker (“trickle-down” has never worked before it will not work now). Oh, and he has bullied, insulted, and threatened everyone who has seen through incredulous scams. I can continue with the other debacles, “Russiagate”, Covid-19, George Floyd Protest, but why? We all saw it. His lack of leadership in any situation is very self-evident.

When November 3rd comes around I want you to remember the last 4 years and ask yourself this, must we allow this petty, shallow, self-gratifying man-child to serve another four more years?  I hope your answer is no and that you vote for Joe Biden.

Donald Trump’s June 1st strolled from the White House to the steps of St. John’s Church for a staged photo-op. Moments before Washington D.C. police tear gassed peaceful George Floyd protesters to make way for the president’s entourage of White House administrators, secret service personnel, and chosen media.

Agricultural Land versus Regional World Population

Recently in my wanderings through “Reddit-land” I came across a world map that divided the world’s population into four equally numbered regions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/aeosva/world_divided_into_4_regions_with_the_same/

This recalled another world map, one of a different kind, showing all the agricultural land is located geographically.

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/7u6enj/map_showing_where_all_the_agricultural_land_is_in/

Superimposing the two I was startled by the differing distributions and what it implies. Most agricultural lands are existing in two narrow bands that cross the globe in both north and south temperate regions. When you consider population distributions you see that two of the largest agricultural regions exist in the least dense regions, the Americas and Europe. In the densest, only India has enough farmland to supply its population. But it may not be enough as its population increases.

World Population Divided Into 4 Regions Superimposed On Where All Agricultural Regions Are Located.


When one considers how this will affect the world socially, politically and economically one only sees an increase in conflict, instability, and war.

Just a thought.

Here’s one more, all of the above doesn’t even give a consideration of how climate change will change the agricultural regions.

https://reliefweb.int/map/world/world-climate-change-vulnerability-index-2014

-A. M. Holmes

Battles Are Not Won By Skirmishes and Wars Are Not Won Without Wins!

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As President Trump continues to lie, manipulate, and bully his populistic policies his nationalist followers continue to mistaken it for effectiveness and ignore the folly of it. In the meanwhile, our country continues on its chaotic course creating trade wars with stronger economies than our own and alienating allies. To stop Trump the majority that opposes him has to unite under one movement and one party. This could be the Democratic Party. Trump himself today said that if the Democrats wish to determine who becomes Supreme Court Justice they need to win elections.

If that’s the case then let’s do it! Let the “Blue Wave” overwhelm the Republicans in the November Elections! But in order to do that the Democrat Party has to pick their fights skillfully and escape the label of “liberal obstructionist” the Republicans have put on them. They have to embrace those issues the GOP have shown to be least effective and win on issues like immigration; trade; gun control and healthcare.

Let them have their Supreme Court Justice pick, let Trump have Brett Kavanaugh for Supreme Court Justice. Battles are not won by skirmishes and wars are not won without wins! To win in the 2018 mid-term elections the Democrats must be the Progressive leadership Millennials and Gen-Z are looking for. Only they have the numbers to effectively overwhelm Trump Boomer support.

-A. M. Holmes

 

Not On Pomp and Circumstance But of the Rights of the People: The True Meaning of the 4th of July

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“When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

So, begins one of Western civilization’s most important documents, The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen United States of America for independence. Much has already been said about it in the last 242 years since it was written and I’m sure much more will be said today on this July 4th, 2018 especially on social media and Twitter in particular. You’ll hear how this is the work of a people seeking Freedom and Justice from an overbearing dictatorial monarchy, or of how this was the foundation upon which this Great Country was built on, or of how a bunch of privileged White Men got together and for their own purposes created such hypocrisy. You’ll hear all of this and maybe even a little about the history that led to that meeting on July in Philadelphia. Consider this my small contribution for I think it’s the next part of the document that I find relevant to our times and worth a look.

 “That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to affect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes”.

Here we have a group of people who came to the Americas seeking asylum from whatever affected them, war; famine; disease; religious and ethnic persecution and established a new home in a land controlled by a government distant not only geographically, but culturally and ideologically as well. King George III and Great Britain were involved in several conflicts mostly around the issue of trade and with France in opposition. At first, they couldn’t have cared less what a bunch of lower class migrants did if they could still be exploited. The government needed money to fight its wars and taxing the importation of goods was a good and quick way of getting it. The elitist aristocrats in England were not concerned with how this would affect the common people’s livelihood, they thought that the people in the Americas were too uneducated, too easily influenced by sedition, not worth the trouble if they remained loyal to the Monarchy.  But, if they did become rebellious, a swift and powerful show of force was necessary to put them back in line. This King George and Parliament did time and time again with some of its most lethal consequences in places like Boston and Charlestown, Massachusetts. Many people died in the streets, hills, and pastures trying to protest what they thought was an unfair, Godless, merciless dictatorship. And they were not all English for, as I pointed out above, many came from other countries, some willingly and others not so much, looking for the same thing, “Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”. So, when the English government and its King refused to listen to their complaints they took the only option they thought was open to them, they assembled as representatives of the people of the thirteen United States of America and voted to reject that government through a formal Declaration of Independence. As you read it, and I encourage you to do so, you will find that it was not a declaration of armed conflict, no war between England and the Americas, but the last attempt to reach a compromise on a long list of grievances the government refused to address because it thought it as nothing more than the whining of a bunch of malcontents. Here are some of the highlights of those complaints against King George III and His Royalists Tory government:

– He (the King and his government) has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

-He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

-He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

-He has endeavored to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose, obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

-He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

-He has erected a multitude of New Offices and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people and eat out their substance.

-For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world.

-For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent.

If all of this sounds familiar it’s only because those who govern now have forgotten, or more so forsaken, what this country was truly founded on, not Pomp and Circumstance but of the Rights of the People to Govern themselves and when their government opposes them, that government must Abdicate its Power.

“In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.”

Words to remember on July 4th, 2018 and, better yet, in November.

 

-A. M. Holmes

“PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!”

In a Twitter posting the evening of March 21st, President Trump said,

Donald J Trump realDonaldTrump Twitter

Here’s my reply.

Since the Russians help you win the Elections2016, I can see why you think this. But, to say you are “smarter”, more “energetic”, or charismatic than the previous POTUS not illustrates your ignorance of history and politics but you naivete in diplomacy. 

Don’t take credit for achievements you have yet to accomplish. So far there’s no non-nuclear proliferation treaty with either North Korea or Iran, no plan with Russia on ISIS or the MiddleEast. And at home, you are claiming economic boon without policy.

You claim victory without achieving anything. “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!” you dare to claim Reagan’s words and policy? How dare you. POTUSTrump, you are not and never will be a Great Communicator, you will never be a great anything.

-A. M. Holmes

Guess Who’s Coming to Davos?

170526-macron-merkel-trump-feature

The World Economic Forum, WEF, will be held January 23th through 26th in Davos, Switzerland and guess who’s coming? President of the United States Donald J. Trump and he will the first since President Clinton did so 17 years ago. Meetings are held annually in January and carry themes like, for example in 2000, “New Beginnings: Making a difference”. This year’s theme for the forum will be “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World” and considering President Trump after one year in office is turning to be a most divisive leader not only at home but abroad as well what says or tweets will be interesting, to say the least. But there is another twist to this that may make even more interesting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel may be coming and if she does she will join French President Emmanuel Macron in support of what could most fittingly call a “Europe First” economic policy.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva, Switzerland who is “committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional, and industry agendas” and is made up of the top 1,500 business leaders, drawn from 1,000 of the world’s top companies; 219 public figures, including 40 heads of state or government, 64 cabinet ministers, 30 heads or senior officials of international organizations, and 10 ambassadors; and 432 from civil society, including 32 heads or representatives of non-governmental organizations, 225 media leaders, 149 leaders from academic institutions and think tanks, 15 religious leaders of different faiths, and 11 union leaders. It is the who’s who of the world’s top economic brass. It is also an institution that runs contrary to Trump’s professed dislike for “globalists” and elites. So why is he going? According to a Wall Street Journal article,  https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-of-donald-trump-interview-with-the-wall-street-journal-1515715481, Trump wants to be “a cheerleader for the country”. He wants to tell the “story of what’s happening in the United States …and of tremendous things are happening in the United States”. In other words, he wants to boast about his claimed achievements to an audience which, for the most part, couldn’t possibly care any less. But crow he will for nothing feeds Trump’s ego more than to show off in front of a crowd he considers, though not mutually shared reciprocally by some, as his equal. Two individuals who do not agree with the President and who will also be speaking are German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron and that’s when things will get interesting. Why? Both Merkel and Macron will be speaking on the 24th, two days before Trump’s speech, and if they stick to the theme of the forum, theirs will be a plan for global economic unity and if the U.S. wishes not to be a part of it “very well and good wishes”.

In January Reuter’s article, Merkel is described as “the last defender of liberal democratic values” and whom Trump has accused of “ruining Germany”  (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-merkel/merkel-could-join-macron-in-davos-for-epic-clash-with-trump-idUSKBN1F30HB).  Macron, who is a pro-European centrist and supports free trade with the global rules-based order, is believed by some, including Robin Niblett, director of the Chatham House think tank in London, that he will speak not only “about Europe. He will try to take up the mantle of the free world under Europe’s wing”. This is a post-Brexit Europe with strengthening economic ties to the Trans-Pacific Partnership of China and other Pacific region nations and who are looking for more partners in South America and the Middle East, two other regions where Trump’s popularity is nothing less than questionable. This will put to test the idea of “strength in numbers” against Trump’s “America First” and see who wins. Before you place your bets let’s take a look at a few things to consider.

First, has President Trump really wrong in boasting about his achievements in office? I guess that depends on whether he deserves the credit or is it just latent results from the Obama administration’s economic plans finally coming to fruition? The latter makes more sense because economies do not grow merely because you will it with threat or rhetoric or by having a garage sale of government property, stripping the power of agencies you believe hamper businesses, give more money to the top 1% through tax cuts, and declaring “America is Great Again”.  If it were that simple more would have tried it in the past and we wouldn’t have to make anything great again because we would already be just that. No, economies do not grow on charisma and showmanship they rely on ties with strong partners you can trust and businesses who see gains in the long term. So far, Trump is not seen by most to be trustworthy nor as a visionary.

On the other hand, there’s the European Union whose members have seen better economic days and their leadership are in a constant struggle to keep office. It’s a Europe which is witnessing one of its strongest, Great Britain, leave with no way of stopping it and may see further disintegration if it can’t turn things around quickly enough. Then enters China, the leader apparent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the U.S. withdrew, with it’s continually growing economy and yuan it’s willing to invest. The question now becomes one of whether you are willing to sell everything to the Dragon of the Far East with its monetary market manipulations and strict market practices that favor Chinese interest over investors. Then, there’s Russia, how will they react to the possibility of a Sino-European Union trade pact? This is a course that only a modern day Ulysses. Is French President Emmanuel Macron that man? Some believe he is but it all depends on how quickly he can bring to order a France plagues with its own economic problems as well as conflicts between the far right and left and terrorist attacks. If he can hold his nose above water long enough to stem the tide and keep his office he might bring in the ship in for France and even Europe. He’ll need allies, though, and that’s why German Chancellor Angela Merkel is so important for Germany is one of the only other economy Union. Unfortunately, Merkel shares many of Macron’s problems within her own country and may just barely remain in office in time for the Davos forum.

A globalist’s “Strength in numbers” versus isolationist’s “America First”, who has the better plan? In the past, close trade ties have proven to be a setup for world economic depressions. As one government goes terribly into debt others fall as their confidence in the markets fail them. What follows is a domino effect of global proportion that will not stop until all have fallen. But that was in the past at a time before international corporations and global multi-conglomerates. Our world today is one where borders, at least in a business sense, are completely meaningless. A world where information moves at the speed of light, and so does innovation and research. A world that can make anyone does not connect with it a pariah and one that can’t be trusted. Even Russia knows not fall into the trap of isolationism that its predecessor, the Soviets, clung to hard to maintain up to the bitter end. And yet, here we have a U.S President carrying on about how wonderful things in his government now that he has removed the reins that bind it can negotiate “a better deal”.

Scenario: It’s a world dominated by global corporations that provide and trade in contracted services and are regulated only marginally by countries sharing trade interests, trade without borders. The U.S., playing the isolationist game, participates only in those areas of negotiation it sees it will gain the most in spite of that fact the largest of its “American-based companies” are also part of the global network. No matter how hard the U.S. tries to increase its productivity and exportation of goods it never seems to do as well as countries in Europe and Asia. It finds its increasing deficit, the inability to control sudden stock market shifts and legacy obligations such as infrastructure rebuilding is to shake off thus stifling any possible gains it can make. The country tries through austerity programs to get the situation under control but is undermined when it finds itself having to rely more heavily on contracted private companies to provide basic services. Then one day, the unspeakable happens. It may be a war that engulfs several nations, famine, drought or any other natural disaster of some kind, either way, the markets begin to panic. Without any regulatory controls, the crash begins in, say Europe, and travels quickly around the world even before the markets open in their respected countries. In the U.S. there’s nothing to stop it for most of the regulatory tools set into place to prevent something like this were removed previously in order to see if by making it easier for revenue flow it would improve the economy. As the windstorm of economic disaster spreads it demolishes everything without something it could be anchored with. Then it hits China with its relatively high regulated market and a strong economy. It plays the part of much-needed firewall and the selling and devaluation come to a screeching halt. What comes next all depends on who your friends are and how close they are to you to be willing to back you up?

Fiction? Are you willing to bet “America First” on it?